Two days after Oregon's general election, business advocates gathering in Salem warned that employers could face another difficult legislative session. But the discussion at the Salem Area Chamber of Commerce revealed a concern extending beyond taxes and regulations:how to address the affordability crisis.
At the Chamber's Nov. 5 Business Advocacy meeting, state and national policy experts examined Democratic gains in Oregon and Congress, the pressures facing employers and how economic frustration is changing voter behavior.
Democrats appear to be headed toward 39 seats in Oregon's 60-member House and 19 in the 30-member Senate, expanding their existing supermajorities. Several races remained unofficial, including House District 21, where Democrat Michael Welsh led Republican incumbent Kevin Mannix.
J.L. Wilson, executive director of the Oregon State Chamber of Commerce, predicted that the larger Democratic majority would make revenue increases a greater focus of the upcoming legislative session.
He argued that Tuesday's election results reflected widespread dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, particularly over affordability, and that national political sentiment had influenced state and local contests.
Yet Wilson suggested the business community faces a challenge that election results alone cannot explain.
Wilson argued that rising prices and financial pressure have weakened public confidence in businesses. He urged employers to reconsider how they communicate their contributions to workers and communities rather than relying exclusively on arguments about taxes and business rankings.
Nicole Palmateer-Hazelbaker, the Salem Chamber's contracted lobbyist and owner of Bravio Communications, offered a similarly cautious outlook for the 2027 Oregon Legislature.
"I think you're going to see every revenue measure we've ever thought of. Here it comes," she said.
Palmateer-Hazelbaker identified personal income taxes and corporate taxes among the areas lawmakers could examine as they confront budget pressures, including Medicaid funding.
Oregon's Constitution requires a three-fifths majority in each legislative chamber to pass bills raising revenue. The projected Democratic majorities would exceed those thresholds, although disagreements within the party could complicate legislative negotiations.
Palmateer-Hazelbaker also noted that significant tax increases could face referendum challenges from voters.
Oregon voters rejected Measure 120 just last May by 82.9% which sought to increase the gas tax and transportation fees. The electorate responded to messaging that successfully linked increased taxes to individual financial stress and affordability issues.
At the federal level, Chris Eyler, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Northwest regional Vice President, described the difficulties businesses could face under divided government. He emphasized federal permitting reform and reliable transportation funding as priorities for employers planning investments and infrastructure projects.
Eyler also highlighted a historical perspective that change has become the norm. Eyler said, “Since the year 2000, we’ve now had twelve election cycles and twelve of those have resulted in party control changes in the House, Senate, and the White House or some combination of all three.” The discussion became particularly pointed when attendees questioned how smaller employers could overcome negative perceptions associated with large corporations and national politics.
Some argued that local businesses, which employ neighbors and support nearby communities, are experiencing many of the same financial pressures as their workers.
Wilson acknowledged the distinction but maintained that employers must demonstrate more clearly how they improve people's lives.
The next test will come when lawmakers begin introducing legislation for the 2027 session, scheduled to convene Jan. 19. For Salem-area employers, the debate will involve not only which taxes advance but how the business community can build broader support for its priorities.